By Rich Benvin — USPTR Pro, former ATP player and WTA coach
Most fans watch the ATP Finals for the winners. Coaches watch for the patterns — the two or three shots a player chooses before the highlight, because that’s where points are actually decided. The trophy is lifted a week from Sunday; the lessons start with the very first match.
The Nitto ATP Finals run November 15–22 at the Inalpi Arena in Turin, on a fast indoor hard court that rewards first-strike tennis. Eight players, two round-robin groups named for legends of the game. The McEnroe Group: Alexander Zverev, Ben Shelton, Arthur Fils and Rafael Jodar. The Lendl Group: Carlos Alcaraz, Daniil Medvedev, Flavio Cobolli and Frances Tiafoe. Sunday opens with Zverev against the newcomer Jodar in the afternoon session and Shelton against Fils at night.
I’ve spent four decades on court as a player and a coach, and I can tell you this: almost everything that decides matches in Turin is borrowable. Not the 140 mph serves — the decisions. Here are the seven patterns I’ll be watching for this week, and exactly how a club player can steal each one.
1. Serve +1: The Point Is Won With the Second Ball
Watch Zverev’s service games on Sunday and count how often his first groundstroke after the serve goes to the same neighborhood: deep, through the middle or into the returner’s weaker side, with margin. That’s not an accident. Elite servers don’t serve and improvise — they serve to set up a specific next ball. The serve goes wide, the court opens, and the +1 forehand is already decided before the return is struck.
Borrow it: Pick your +1 target before you toss. Serve wide in the deuce court? Your next ball goes to the open court or behind the returner — decide it now, not after the return lands. Even at club level, naming the pattern (“wide serve, forehand to the open court”) turns a hopeful exchange into a plan. Two shots with intent beat five shots of hope.
2. Two Return Positions — One for Each Serve
Daniil Medvedev returns first serves from nearly the back fence, then creeps two or three steps inside the baseline for second serves. Same player, two different postcodes, chosen by simple logic: against pace, buy time; against the weaker ball, take time away. Watch how his court position changes between first and second serves all week — it’s the clearest tactical tell in the tournament.
Borrow it: Stop returning everything from one spot. First serve: a step deeper, a shorter block swing, and aim big — middle of the court, deep. Second serve: step in, take the ball earlier, and send it at the server’s feet or into their weaker side. You’ll be amazed how many free points come just from the server seeing you move in.
3. Crosscourt Until You Earn the Line
Count the crosscourt backhands in any Medvedev or Zverev rally. Six, eight, ten balls crosscourt — then, suddenly, one ripped down the line. The line shot isn’t courage; it’s arithmetic. They change direction only when three things line up: they’re balanced, they’re inside the baseline, and the incoming ball is short or slow enough to take at net height. Until then, crosscourt is the high-percentage engine — more court, lower net, bigger margin.
Borrow it: Give yourself the same rule. In a crosscourt exchange, you may change direction down the line only when you can honestly say yes to all three: balanced, stepping in, and a ball sitting up for you. Most club errors aren’t bad strokes — they’re good strokes attempted on the wrong ball.
4. The First Step In: Short Balls Get Visited, Not Watched
Alcaraz’s most underrated skill isn’t his speed — it’s that his first move on a short ball is always forward, instantly. No pause to admire the opportunity. He takes the ball at its peak, inside the court, and he’s already closing for the volley or the swinging finish while his opponent is still recovering. Watch his feet when his matches start this week: the split second a ball lands short, he’s moving in.
Borrow it: Train the recognition, not the shot. When a ball lands inside the service line, your first step goes toward the net — every time, no debate. Take it early, aim deep through the middle or behind your opponent, and keep coming. Club players lose more points watching short balls bounce in their minds than they ever lose swinging at them.
5. The Reset Ball: High, Heavy, and Boring on Purpose
Here’s a pattern fans miss because it looks like nothing. Stretched wide, off balance, in trouble — the pros don’t slash at a miracle. They send one ball high, heavy and deep through the middle, buy three seconds, and rebuild the point from neutral. Medvedev and Cobolli are masters of it. The reset isn’t surrender; it’s refusing to donate the point.
Borrow it: Make the reset your default under pressure. Pushed wide or late to a ball? Forget the highlight. Loft it deep — aim well past the service line — crosscourt or middle, with air under it. Half the rallies you currently lose end one shot after you got in trouble. Survive that shot and the percentages swing back to even.
6. Patterns Repeat on Big Points — Watch 30–30 and Break Point
Coaches keep charts because players are honest under pressure. At 30–30 or break point down, servers go to their most trusted pattern — for most of this field, that’s the wide serve in the deuce court or the body serve and T serve in the ad court, hunting the backhand. Shelton’s lefty slice wide in the ad court will be his break-point banker all week. If you can predict a world-class server at the biggest moment, you can predict anyone at your club.
Borrow it twice: First, build your own banker — one serve-plus-one combination you’d trust at 4–5, 30–40 — and rehearse it until it’s boring. Second, scout your opponents: by the third game you’ll know their break-point serve. Sit on it. Returning gets much easier when the surprise is gone.
7. The Tiebreak Is a Different Sport
Fast indoor courts mean tiebreaks, and tiebreaks mean the margins shrink to serving patterns and first-ball quality. Watch the mini-breaks this week: most come not from winners but from one player making the other hit one extra ball from a bad position. The pros protect their serve like it’s gold — first serve percentage climbs, risk on the next ball drops — and they attack returns in the first four points, when one mini-break is usually enough.
Borrow it: In your own tiebreaks, front-load the discipline. First four points: the highest-percentage tennis you own — big targets, deep returns, no line-painting. Most club tiebreaks are lost in the first four points on donations, then chased too late. Play the tiebreak like the pros protect it: seven small finals, not one long gamble.
Your Coach’s Checklist for This Week
- Sunday afternoon, Zverev–Jodar: chart Zverev’s serve +1 targets for one set. You’ll see the same two patterns on loop.
- Sunday night, Shelton–Fils: watch Shelton’s ad-court serve at break point, and how far in Fils stands to return the second serve.
- All week: pick one pattern per match — just one — and count it. That’s how coaches watch: narrow focus, real numbers.
- Semifinals Saturday November 21, final Sunday November 22: notice how the patterns tighten under pressure. Big points reveal true habits — theirs and yours.
None of this requires a 130 mph serve. It requires watching the point before the winner — and then, at your own level, choosing the same boring, correct ball the pros choose. That’s the whole secret of this tournament: eight of the best players alive, winning with patterns a club player can run on a Tuesday night.
I’ll be posting pattern notes and court diagrams as the matches unfold this week — check back after each day’s play.
